Analyst Conference Summary

biotechnology

Moderna
MRNA

conference date: November 6, 2026 @ 5:00 AM Pacific Time
for quarter ending: September 30, 2026 (third quarter, Q3 2026)


Forward-looking statements

Overview: Covid vaccine sales ramp up, focus is on potential melanoma vaccine.

Basic data (GAAP):

Revenue was $1.31 billion, up sequentially from $145 million, and up 28% from $1.02 billion year-earlier.

Net income was $162 million, up sequentially from negative $782 million, and up from negative $200 million year-earlier.

EPS (diluted) was negative $0.38, up sequentially from negative $1.97, and up from negative $0.51 year-earlier.

Guidance:

Year-end cash and investments $8.1 to $8.3 billion. 2026 revenue up 15% to 25% y/y.

Conference Highlights:

Stephane Bancel, Moderna's CEO, said "We delivered 29% revenue growth in the third quarter, alongside the U.S. approval of mFLUSIVA, our fifth approved product globally, and positive Phase 3 results for intismeran in melanoma. Building on this momentum, we increased our full-year revenue growth outlook to 15%-25%, while continuing to reduce costs and strengthen our balance sheet. Looking ahead, we anticipate additional intismeran readouts, pivotal data in propionic acidemia and further regulatory approvals as we advance our pipeline and build a more diversified company." Reduced cash costs by 10% v. Q3 2025.

Juan Andres was appointed Chief Operating Officer, effective October 5, 2026. Mr. Andres previously served in senior leadership positions at Moderna.

Revenue for the quarter was about $780 million from the U.S. and $533 million international.

In September 2026, Moderna completed a convertible senior notes offering totaling approximately $3.0 billion, raising approximately $2.6 billion in net proceeds.

An Analyst Day will be held November 12, 2026.

In Q4, in August, mFlusiva (mRNA-1010) was approved by the FDA for patients over 50 years old. Also approved in Canada. The Flu/Covid combo vaccine mRNA 1083 (mCoflu or mCombriax) was approved in the EU and Canada. Under review in USA, Japan, UK, Australia.

In October Moderna and Merck presented positive Phase 3 data at ESMO of Intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157), combined with Keytruda, for resected high-risk melanoma. Showing reduced risk of recurrence or death and risk of metastasis versus Keytruda alone. Preparing for regulatory filings. Earlier in Q3 2026 Moderna presented positive five-year Phase 2b adjuvant melanoma data at the 2026 ASCO Annual Meeting.

mRNA-4359 continued its Phase 2 clinical trial in first-line metastatic melanoma, previously treated metastatic melanoma and first-line non-small cell lung cancer.

Moderna and Immatics continue dosing mRNA-4203 in a Phase 1 study evaluating in combination with anzu-cel (anzutresgene autoleucel, IMA203).

In Q4 2026 mRNA-1469 was chosen for a WHO Phase 2/3 ebola study.

In Q3 2026 the norovirus vaccine, mRNA-1403 Phase 3 data did not meet criteria for success at the interim analyis, but is ongoing, with an additional cohort enrolled.

For norovius, the Phase 3 trial of mRNA-1403 is fully enrolled, with data likely in 2026.

Moderna's mRNA-3927 for proprionic acidemia registrational trial is fully enrolled. Data likely by the end of 2026.

Cash and investments ended the quarter at $8.0 billion, up sequentially from $6.9 billion. Long-term debt $591 million, convertible notes $3 billion. During the quarter ended Moderna paid $950 million in a litigation settlement. $2.6 billon was raised with convertible notes.

Operating expense (GAAP) of $1.18 billon consisted of $318 million for cost of sales, $583 million for R&D, and $282 million for SG&A. Operating income was $130 million. $62 million interest income; $21 million other expense. Income tax $9 million.

Q&A Selective Summary:

Frame confidence in renal cell carcinoma data? Event driven, could end late this year or early next year. Confident because we know RCC is an anti-PD1 sensitive tumor, sensitive to T cells, and our therapy works by generating novel T cells. Also saw Phase 2 efficacy for both high and low TMB patients. So it is likely we will have a positive result.

Melanoma Lnp contribution to immunogenicity? Came from a retrospective analysis, but has not been consistently shown since then. So evidence is weak.

Pricing for intismeran, thoughts? Premature. Thrilled by the data.

Phase 2 is large and randomized. So can inform practice. If results are strong enough we could take it to FDA for approval.

ESMO pancreatic data, next steps? PDAC, all patients showed T cell reactions. Can be safely administered with chemo. Discussing next steps with Merck, could be combined with a RAS inhibitor.

BLA for intismeran? Intense work with Merck, should happen this year, could see approval next year. There is a lot of work to do.

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Disclaimer: My analyst call summaries may include both condensations of statements made by company representatives and my own analysis. They are not covered by any warranty. I cannot guarantee anything said by company representatives is true. I try not to make errors, but it is possible. These are my personal notes which I share with other investors and which I use as the basis of my blog and Seeking Alpha articles.

Copyright 2026 William P. Meyers